Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008074 0.009110 0.010245 0.011584 0.013124 0.014842 0.016912
2024-10-20 0.006182 0.007519 0.009113 0.011164 0.013750 0.016925 0.021149
2024-10-27 0.005184 0.006618 0.008425 0.010890 0.014198 0.018531 0.024714
2024-11-03 0.004596 0.006104 0.008091 0.010933 0.014952 0.020515 0.028946
2024-11-10 0.004285 0.005892 0.008095 0.011385 0.016263 0.023364 0.034744
2024-11-17 0.003846 0.005442 0.007704 0.011207 0.016609 0.024822 0.038632
2024-11-24 0.003543 0.005147 0.007491 0.011244 0.017254 0.026770 0.043529
2024-12-01 0.003220 0.004787 0.007138 0.011014 0.017431 0.027967 0.047312
2024-12-08 0.003051 0.004640 0.007089 0.011250 0.018373 0.030513 0.053783
2024-12-15 0.002848 0.004421 0.006903 0.011233 0.018875 0.032351 0.059221
2024-12-22 0.002574 0.004064 0.006462 0.010739 0.018484 0.032538 0.061524
2024-12-29 0.002412 0.003876 0.006280 0.010672 0.018840 0.034125 0.066808
2025-01-05 0.002366 0.003882 0.006436 0.011234 0.020456 0.038369 0.078422
2025-01-12 0.002162 0.003605 0.006081 0.010833 0.020200 0.038927 0.082280
2025-01-19 0.002001 0.003389 0.005814 0.010568 0.020174 0.039937 0.087303
2025-01-26 0.001901 0.003272 0.005714 0.010610 0.020766 0.042312 0.095924
2025-02-02 0.001863 0.003263 0.005812 0.011047 0.022228 0.046767 0.110444
2025-02-09 0.001749 0.003106 0.005617 0.010874 0.022363 0.048268 0.117788
2025-02-16 0.001670 0.003009 0.005529 0.010911 0.022959 0.050912 0.128656
2025-02-23 0.001569 0.002860 0.005327 0.010688 0.022942 0.052080 0.135696
2025-03-02 0.001524 0.002819 0.005336 0.010916 0.023989 0.056007 0.151402
2025-03-09 0.001457 0.002729 0.005237 0.010900 0.024456 0.058537 0.163534
2025-03-16 0.001349 0.002550 0.004944 0.010423 0.023751 0.057920 0.165891